The Caspian Sea has long been a battleground of legal claims, particularly for Iran, which has frequently contested the distribution of its waters. The real question isn’t just ownership, but rather the implications of how this body of water is managed. Five countries—Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Russia—share the sea, but their claims are anything but clear-cut.

A landmark moment occurred in 2018 when leaders from these five nations signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea in Aktau, Kazakhstan. While this agreement established guidelines for navigation and fishing, it notably failed to specify fixed percentages or portions for each country, leaving territorial disputes unresolved.

Why doesn't Iran claim half the Caspian Sea?

Prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Caspian Sea was essentially shared between Iran and the USSR. Agreements like the 1921 Russo-Persian Treaty and a subsequent treaty in 1940 facilitated navigation but did not allocate any specific maritime boundaries. Ahmad Vakhshiteh from the Center for Strategic Research on Developing Relations with the Middle East elucidates, "None of these treaties specified a percentage for either Iran or the Soviet Union; they emphasized common use instead." Thus, the notion that Iran could claim 50% of the Caspian Sea lacks credible backing in these historical agreements.

Post-Soviet independence for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan turned the bilateral negotiation into a five-way contention. Iranian politicians have varying claims, with some proposing 50% and others suggesting 20%. Yet, to date, none of these assertions have found acceptance on an international scale, complicating Iran's position in the region.

What's covered by the 2018 agreement?

The 2018 convention introduced a nuanced legal framework governing the Caspian's waters, seabed, and resources. While each country attained designated territorial waters extending 15 nautical miles, an exclusive fishing zone of an additional ten nautical miles did not translate to clear decomposition of the Caspian into fixed national segments. In fact, Vakhshiteh states, "The Caspian is neither completely a sea nor completely a lake." The importance now lies in managing the seabed effectively as that delineation affects offshore oil and gas exploration rights, which are especially vital for Iran's economic interests.

To be frank, while Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan have made headway with bilateral agreements to delineate their seabeds, Iran's efforts have lagged, making the situation particularly sensitive.

Security dynamics in Caspian politics

Security has taken center stage in the ongoing disputes surrounding the Caspian Sea. The 2018 convention prohibits the military presence of non-coastal nations, aimed at preventing external military influence in the region. This is particularly salient amidst tensions that arise when incidents, such as the recent accusation levied by Iran against Ukraine regarding the attack on an Iranian vessel, emerge. Such developments illustrate how Tehran perceives the need to shield the Caspian from external military actors.

According to Vakhshiteh, although Iran navigates seabed boundaries, it views the overarching legal framework as paramount: "The Caspian should not become a military base for powers from outside the region." Notably, Iran remains the only signatory yet to finalize parliamentary ratification of this convention.

Energy stakes in the Caspian Sea

At the heart of these discussions are energy resources, as the Caspian is rich in oil and gas deposits. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are already reaping the rewards of substantial offshore oil. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan boasts significant natural gas reserves, creating a competitive landscape. Iran has latent hydrocarbon potential, yet its developments, notably the Sardar-e Jangal discovery, have faced delays.

The Persian Gulf offers more accessible energy opportunities for Iran, rendering further development of its difficult Caspian projects less appealing amid sanctions and technology limitations. Consequently, Iran's energy ambitions in the Caspian remain overshadowed by more immediate prospects elsewhere.

So, who owns the Caspian Sea?

The answer, as it stands, is that no single nation holds exclusive rights over the Caspian Sea. Established treaties don’t allocate a fixed share to any bordering country. Instead, countries share access through territorial waters and exclusive fishing zones, with the seabed's ownership still a point of negotiation. The focus now is on collaborative resource management and boundary definition rather than squabbling over percentages.

Going forward, effective governance in managing the Caspian’s resources, delineating clear boundaries, and ensuring the exclusion of foreign military presence will dictate regional dynamics far more than who owns what part of the sea.

Edited by: Tim Rooks